One way to think about presidential campaigns is as a type of wager. A candidate’s strategy is essentially a calculation about what factors will exert the greatest influence on voters and if that prediction is right he or she wins power.

In this light, the essential dynamic of presidential politics is not so different than buying stocks or even joining the office pool during March Madness: All are bets about future performance.

The notion of running for president as a big bet comes especially to mind today. The 2020 election is exactly one year away. The Iowa caucuses are exactly three months away. Most of the wagers candidates began placing months or even years ago are about to fail. A small handful will soon pay off.

[Read More…]